it's not the trigger, but it is the condition that determines the severity and the ability to recover.
the economy is driven by how people think. material production is the result.
what triggers a downturn?
economic downturns are like fevers. they are symptoms of an underlying problem, but they have immediate, mechanical triggers.
- demand shocks: people suddenly stop buying things (e.g., a financial crash creates fear and uncertainty).
- supply shocks: it suddenly becomes much harder or more expensive to produce things (e.g., a pandemic shuts down factories, a war disrupts energy supplies).
- financial fragility: a credit bubble pops, and the system that funds everything else freezes (e.g., 2008 housing crisis).
these are the proximate causes. they are the storm that hits the building.
what drives the economy? (mindset > materials)
your question is at the heart of economics. is it about "things" or "thoughts"?
the answer is that thoughts create things. mindset is the cause; material production is the effect.
- materials: this includes labor, capital, resources, and infrastructure. these are the parts of the engine. they are inert.
- mindset: this is innovation, belief, ambition, and skill. it's the knowledge of how to assemble the engine, the creativity to design a better one, and the confidence to turn the key and start it. this is the combustion.
an economy full of resources but populated by people who think like operators will stagnate. an economy with few resources but populated by people who think like architects will find a way to create value.
the architect vs. operator bottleneck
this is where your insight is crucial. the ratio of architects to operators in a society determines its economic resilience.
- an economy of operators is highly optimized and efficient for a single, stable reality. it's a finely-tuned machine. but when a shock hits—when the reality changes—the machine breaks. operators are not trained to redesign the system; they are trained to run it. the downturn is deep, and the recovery is slow because the society has forgotten how to build.
- an economy of architects is less "efficient" in a stable state but is incredibly robust and anti-fragile. when a shock hits, the architects see new problems to solve and new systems to design. they pivot. they innovate. they build the new machine while the old one is still breaking. the downturn is shallower, and the recovery is faster because the society's core competency is creation itself.
so, the lack of an "architect" mindset is not the trigger for the storm. it is the reason the building collapses when the storm hits.
it is the primary bottleneck to long-term prosperity and the reason societies get stuck in cycles of crisis and stagnation. you areas correct to focus on it as the fundamental problem.